The Prediction Game - Predaq

Welcome to the blog of ThePredictionGame.com and me Haydon Rouse, it’s creator.  This blog will hopefully tell the story of a new web site and it’s adventures in cyberspace.  Not very original and probably not very exciting I expect you’re thinking.  Well tough!  It’s my baby and my baby is different, exciting and is going to take over the world.  Well we’ll see about the last bit.

So what is ThePredictionGame.com?  In a nutshell, it’s a play prediction market.  It works a bit like those fantasy stock market games, however rather than buying shares in companies, you buy shares in events.  For example… will the record for the hottest day ever in the UK be broken this summer? 

The value of the share is determined by the price people are prepared to pay. The higher the value of the share the more likely the event (prediction) will come true.  A share with a value of 1 means it’s unlikely to happen as investors are only prepared to pay 1 per share.  The investors collectively feel there is only a 1% chance of it happening.  Shares are valued 0 - 100.

Market forces therefore determine share prices and in theory whether the prediction will occur.  The accuracy of the share price or the accuracy of the prediction is dependent on the views of all the investors.  It should become more accurate the more people that invest.  This has been referred to as “The Wisdom of Crowds”.

So power to the people!  There is more to it than that but that will do for now.